Uncertainty quantification for mars atmospheric entry using modified generalized polynomial chaos

Xiuqiang Jiang, Shuang Li, Roberto Furfaro

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution


This paper presents a novel computational approach for quantifying the propagation of the uncertainties in the state trajectories of low-lift Mars entry vehicle. The unique contribution of this work is twofold: one is considering the change of stochastic characteristics due to the high nonlinearity of Mars entry dynamics to improve propagation accuracy, and the other is suppressing the increase of equation dimension in long-term integration to enhance computational efficiency. Generalized polynomial chaos is modified accordingly through conducting spectral decomposition and random space decomposition adaptively. In this framework, stochastic dynamics is modeled and transformed into equivalent deterministic dynamics in higher-dimensional space and is updated adaptively when the statistic characteristic of system state changes greatly. The random space is decomposed adaptively when the relative error in variance becomes larger than the predefined threshold. In each random sub-domain, the updated generalized polynomial chaos is employed. We demonstrate that the proposed method is able to quantify propagation of uncertainty effectively in Mars atmospheric entry dynamics, with a better accuracy level than generalized polynomial chaos and much more computational efficiency than Monte-Carlo simulations. Meanwhile, the influences and the evolution profiles of the initial and parametric uncertainties during Mars entry are revealed through parametric studies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, 2018
EditorsPuneet Singla, Ryan M. Weisman, Belinda G. Marchand, Brandon A. Jones
PublisherUnivelt Inc.
Number of pages20
ISBN (Print)9780877036579
StatePublished - 2018
EventAAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, 2018 - Snowbird, United States
Duration: Aug 19 2018Aug 23 2018

Publication series

NameAdvances in the Astronautical Sciences
ISSN (Print)0065-3438


ConferenceAAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, 2018
Country/TerritoryUnited States

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aerospace Engineering
  • Space and Planetary Science


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