Turbine missile - a critical review

The turbine missile problem has been critically reviewed. A probabilistic approach to the problem seems to be most reasonable. However, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's guidelines on this subject may not be adequate. In this paper, some of the critical parameters in the turbine missile problem have been identified and their probabilistic characteristics have been discussed. Separation of high and low trajectory missiles in damage potential evaluation appears to be inappropriate. Definitions of targets from the engineer's point of view have also been suggested. In estimating the occurrence rate of external missiles the statistical approach using the Duane growth rate model seems to be more appealing than the systems reliability approach. However, the observed samples and durations may not be adequate for the Duane growth rate model. A probabilistic methodology to estimate the damage potential of turbine missiles is also developed considering various sources of uncertainty. The methodology is clarified with the help of an example. If the uncertainties in the contributing parameters are considered appropriately, the crude conservatism that has been introduced into the damage potential evaluation can be reduced with confidence.