TimeFork: Interactive prediction of time series

We present TimeFork, an interactive prediction technique to support users predicting the future of time-series data, such as in financial, scientific, or medical domains. TimeFork combines visual representations of multiple time series with prediction information generated by computational models. Using this method, analysts engage in a back-and-forth dialogue with the computational model by alternating between manually predicting future changes through interaction and letting the model automatically determine the most likely outcomes, to eventually come to a common prediction using the model. This computer-supported prediction approach allows for harnessing the user's knowledge of factors influencing future behavior, as well as sophisticated computational models drawing on past performance. To validate the TimeFork technique, we conducted a user study in a stock market prediction game. We present evidence of improved performance for participants using TimeFork compared to fully manual or fully automatic predictions, and characterize qualitative usage patterns observed during the user study.