Time Series Prior Effect on Water Demand Estimation

Paulo José A. Oliveira, Dominic L. Boccelli

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The current study intends to evaluate the impact of using time series models as priors on the demand estimation process. Two different priors were compared: An informationless prior and a novel approach for prior generation based on the explicit propagation of the estimated demand uncertainty through autoregressive (AR) models. The proposed novel AR-Type model can be understood as a natural extrapolation of the classic AR model that considers the estimated demands as random variable inputs instead of point estimates. The proposed models were tested utilizing a realistic case study containing one week of observed measurements. In addition, since sensor failures are commonly observed in real systems, the robustness of the adopted methods was evaluated under different levels of missing flow measurements. The results indicate that the uncertain AR prior was clearly superior to the informationless prior for both failure and no failure situations resulting in consistently lower errors and much smaller confidence intervals without significant losses in terms of reliability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020
Subtitle of host publicationHydraulics, Waterways, and Water Distribution Systems Analysis - Selected Papers from the Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020
EditorsSajjad Ahmad, Regan Murray
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages403-411
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9780784482971
DOIs
StatePublished - 2020
Externally publishedYes
EventWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020: Hydraulics, Waterways, and Water Distribution Systems Analysis - Henderson, United States
Duration: May 17 2020May 21 2020

Publication series

NameWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020: Hydraulics, Waterways, and Water Distribution Systems Analysis - Selected Papers from the Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020

Conference

ConferenceWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020: Hydraulics, Waterways, and Water Distribution Systems Analysis
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityHenderson
Period5/17/205/21/20

Keywords

  • Parameter estimation
  • Time series
  • Water demand
  • Water distribution system

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
  • Pollution
  • Water Science and Technology

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