The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium

Kerstin S. Treydte, Gerhard H. Schleser, Gerhard Helle, David C. Frank, Matthias Winiger, Gerald H. Haug, Jan Esper

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

446 Scopus citations

Abstract

Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation1. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself2,3. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables3, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes4,8. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1179-1182
Number of pages4
JournalNature
Volume440
Issue number7088
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 27 2006
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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