The response of a global food model to possible climate changes: A sensitivity analysis

This paper describes some ways in which global simulation models of relationships between envrionment, economics and population, might be used to examine the impacts of climate change on the world food system. The paper presents an analysis of the response of the International Futures Simulation model to changes in crop yields as a surrogate for climate. This sensitivity analysis provides a range of scenarios of how global and regional food systems might respond to a variety of climate changes. It also demonstrates how these models can respond in an unrealistic or unstable way to certain types of variation. The analysis provides some insight into the complex responses of actual food systems to changes in food production.