The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

Derek M. Lemoine; Sabine Fuss; Jana Szolgayova; Michael Obersteiner; Daniel M. Kammen

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4

The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

Derek M. Lemoine
, Sabine Fuss
, Jana Szolgayova
, Michael Obersteiner
, Daniel M. Kammen

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

31 Scopus citations

Abstract

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO ₂) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO ₂ concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO ₂ constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from "carbon-free" technologies into "emission intensity" technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO ₂ concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO ₂ constraint earlier in the century.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	141-162
Number of pages	22
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume	113
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4
State	Published - Jul 2012

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Global and Planetary Change
Atmospheric Science

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10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4

Cite this

@article{022452a77a894407b486846692a5906b,

title = "The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio",

abstract = "Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO 2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R\&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO 2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R\&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R\&D funding from {"}carbon-free{"} technologies into {"}emission intensity{"} technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80\% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO 2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO 2 constraint earlier in the century.",

author = "Lemoine, \{Derek M.\} and Sabine Fuss and Jana Szolgayova and Michael Obersteiner and Kammen, \{Daniel M.\}",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgements Comments from three anonymous reviewers greatly improved this paper. We also thank Michael O{\textquoteright}Hare for comments and for connecting the authors. The research was carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of the 2009 Young Scientists Summer Program. Participation by Lemoine in the IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program was made possible by a grant from the National Academy of Sciences Board on International Scientific Organizations, funded by the National Science Foundation under grant number OISE-0738129. Support to Lemoine also came from the Robert and Patricia Switzer Foundation Environmental Fellowship Program. Support to Fuss, Szolgayova, and Obersteiner came from the EU-supported project Climate Change: Terrestrial Adaptation and Mitigation in Europe (CC-TAME) (grant number 212535, http://www.cctame.eu/), from the Greenhouse Gas Initiative [“Climate Risk Management Modeling” (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/GGI)] at IIASA, and from Paradigm Shifts Modelling and Innovative Approaches (PASHMINA) (grant number 244766, http://www.pashmina-project.eu).",

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AU - Kammen, Daniel M.

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgements Comments from three anonymous reviewers greatly improved this paper. We also thank Michael O’Hare for comments and for connecting the authors. The research was carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of the 2009 Young Scientists Summer Program. Participation by Lemoine in the IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program was made possible by a grant from the National Academy of Sciences Board on International Scientific Organizations, funded by the National Science Foundation under grant number OISE-0738129. Support to Lemoine also came from the Robert and Patricia Switzer Foundation Environmental Fellowship Program. Support to Fuss, Szolgayova, and Obersteiner came from the EU-supported project Climate Change: Terrestrial Adaptation and Mitigation in Europe (CC-TAME) (grant number 212535, http://www.cctame.eu/), from the Greenhouse Gas Initiative [“Climate Risk Management Modeling” (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/GGI)] at IIASA, and from Paradigm Shifts Modelling and Innovative Approaches (PASHMINA) (grant number 244766, http://www.pashmina-project.eu).

PY - 2012/7

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N2 - Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO 2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO 2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from "carbon-free" technologies into "emission intensity" technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO 2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO 2 constraint earlier in the century.

AB - Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO 2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO 2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from "carbon-free" technologies into "emission intensity" technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO 2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO 2 constraint earlier in the century.

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The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

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