The influence of Colorado River flows on the upper Gulf of California fisheries economy

This analysis explores the influence of Colorado River flows into the Upper Gulf of California on fisheries productivity. Working with available time series data for the region, a series of plausible relationships are modeled between river flows and fisheries catch, focusing on the top commercial species, shrimp and gulf corvina. A tradeoff analysis between fisheries and agriculture was used to assess the net impacts on economic output of various water tradeoff scenarios and an input-output model was developed to estimate the regional economic impacts of shifting water between instream river flows for fisheries productivity and agriculture. Different crop fallowing and crop-shifting scenarios were compared on their ability to create outcomes mutually beneficial to both the agricultural and fisheries sectors. The analysis found a positive correlation between river discharge and fisheries catch. Using the resulting models, the tradeoff analysis yielded crop shifting scenarios that could potentially generate net positive economic output for both agriculture and fisheries sectors.