TY - JOUR
T1 - The future of planetary defense
AU - Mainzer, A.
N1 - Funding Information:
AM is the Principal Investigator of the NEOWISE mission and the proposed Near-Earth Object Camera mission and a member of the LSST Science Advisory Committee. This publication makes use of data products from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, which is a joint project of the University of California, Los Angeles, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This publication also makes use of data products from NEOWISE, which is a project of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, funded by the Planetary Science Division of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Data products used in this work may be found at cneos.jpl.https://nasa.gov and in the PDS Small Bodies Node [Mainzer et al.,]. Data on discovery rates and estimated populations are provided by the Center for NEO Studies, hosted by JPL for the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office of the Science Mission Directorate at Headquarters NASA, Washington D.C.
Publisher Copyright:
©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2017/4/1
Y1 - 2017/4/1
N2 - Asteroids and comets have impacted Earth in the past and will do so in the future. While the frequency of impacts is reasonably well understood on geologic timescales, it is difficult to predict the next sizeable impact on human timescales by extrapolation from population statistics alone. Fortunately, by identifying and tracking individual objects, we can make precise predictions of any potential close encounters with Earth. As more advance notice is provided, the range of possible mitigation options expands. While the chance of an impact is very small, the potential consequences can be severe, meaning that sensible risk reduction measures should be undertaken. By implementing surveys, the risk of an unforeseen impact can be greatly reduced: the first step is finding the objects. Fortunately, the worldwide community of professional and amateur astronomers has made significant progress in discovering large near-Earth objects (NEOs). More than 95% of NEOs capable of causing global devastation (objects larger than ~1 km in diameter) have been discovered, and none of these pose an impact hazard in the near future. Infrastructure is in place to link observations and compute close approaches in real time. Interagency and international collaborations have been undertaken to strengthen cooperative efforts to plan potential mitigation and civil defense campaigns. Yet much remains to be done. Approximately 70% of NEOs larger than 140 m (large enough to cause severe regional damage) remain undiscovered. With the existing surveys, it will take decades to identify the rest. Progress can be accelerated by undertaking new surveys with improved sensitivity.
AB - Asteroids and comets have impacted Earth in the past and will do so in the future. While the frequency of impacts is reasonably well understood on geologic timescales, it is difficult to predict the next sizeable impact on human timescales by extrapolation from population statistics alone. Fortunately, by identifying and tracking individual objects, we can make precise predictions of any potential close encounters with Earth. As more advance notice is provided, the range of possible mitigation options expands. While the chance of an impact is very small, the potential consequences can be severe, meaning that sensible risk reduction measures should be undertaken. By implementing surveys, the risk of an unforeseen impact can be greatly reduced: the first step is finding the objects. Fortunately, the worldwide community of professional and amateur astronomers has made significant progress in discovering large near-Earth objects (NEOs). More than 95% of NEOs capable of causing global devastation (objects larger than ~1 km in diameter) have been discovered, and none of these pose an impact hazard in the near future. Infrastructure is in place to link observations and compute close approaches in real time. Interagency and international collaborations have been undertaken to strengthen cooperative efforts to plan potential mitigation and civil defense campaigns. Yet much remains to be done. Approximately 70% of NEOs larger than 140 m (large enough to cause severe regional damage) remain undiscovered. With the existing surveys, it will take decades to identify the rest. Progress can be accelerated by undertaking new surveys with improved sensitivity.
KW - asteroid
KW - comet
KW - impact
KW - survey
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85018549633&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85018549633&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/2017JE005318
DO - 10.1002/2017JE005318
M3 - Comment/debate
AN - SCOPUS:85018549633
VL - 122
SP - 789
EP - 793
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets
SN - 2169-9097
IS - 4
ER -