Temperature-based instanton analysis: Identifying vulnerability in transmission networks

Jonas Kersulis, Ian Hiskens, Michael Chertkov, Scott Backhaus, Daniel Bienstock

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Scopus citations


A time-coupled instanton method for characterizing transmission network vulnerability to wind generation fluctuation is presented. To extend prior instanton work to multiple-time-step analysis, line constraints are specified in terms of temperature rather than current. An optimization formulation is developed to express the minimum wind forecast deviation such that at least one line is driven to its thermal limit. Results are shown for an IEEE RTS-96 system with several wind-farms.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2015 IEEE Eindhoven PowerTech, PowerTech 2015
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781479976935
StatePublished - Aug 31 2015
Externally publishedYes
EventIEEE Eindhoven PowerTech, PowerTech 2015 - Eindhoven, Netherlands
Duration: Jun 29 2015Jul 2 2015

Publication series

Name2015 IEEE Eindhoven PowerTech, PowerTech 2015


ConferenceIEEE Eindhoven PowerTech, PowerTech 2015


  • Forecast uncertainty
  • Optimization
  • Transmission operations
  • Wind energy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology


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