Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Veronika Eyring; Peter M. Cox; Gregory M. Flato; Peter J. Gleckler; Gab Abramowitz; Peter Caldwell; William D. Collins; Bettina K. Gier; Alex D. Hall; Forrest M. Hoffman; George C. Hurtt; Alexandra Jahn; Chris D. Jones; Stephen A. Klein; John P. Krasting; Lester Kwiatkowski; Ruth Lorenz; Eric Maloney; Gerald A. Meehl; Angeline G. Pendergrass; Robert Pincus; Alex C. Ruane; Joellen L. Russell; Benjamin M. Sanderson; Benjamin D. Santer; Steven C. Sherwood; Isla R. Simpson; Ronald J. Stouffer; Mark S. Williamson

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Veronika Eyring, Peter M. Cox, Gregory M. Flato, Peter J. Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, Peter Caldwell, William D. Collins, Bettina K. Gier, Alex D. Hall, Forrest M. Hoffman, George C. Hurtt, Alexandra Jahn, Chris D. Jones, Stephen A. Klein, John P. Krasting, Lester Kwiatkowski, Ruth Lorenz, Eric Maloney, Gerald A. Meehl, Angeline G. PendergrassRobert Pincus, Alex C. Ruane, Joellen L. Russell, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Benjamin D. Santer, Steven C. Sherwood, Isla R. Simpson, Ronald J. Stouffer, Mark S. Williamson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

506 Scopus citations

Abstract

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	102-110
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	9
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
State	Published - Feb 1 2019

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

Cite this

Eyring, V., Cox, P. M., Flato, G. M., Gleckler, P. J., Abramowitz, G., Caldwell, P., Collins, W. D., Gier, B. K., Hall, A. D., Hoffman, F. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jahn, A., Jones, C. D., Klein, S. A., Krasting, J. P., Kwiatkowski, L., Lorenz, R., Maloney, E., Meehl, G. A., ... Williamson, M. S. (2019). Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, 9(2), 102-110. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

Eyring, V, Cox, PM, Flato, GM, Gleckler, PJ, Abramowitz, G, Caldwell, P, Collins, WD, Gier, BK, Hall, AD, Hoffman, FM, Hurtt, GC, Jahn, A, Jones, CD, Klein, SA, Krasting, JP, Kwiatkowski, L, Lorenz, R, Maloney, E, Meehl, GA, Pendergrass, AG, Pincus, R, Ruane, AC, Russell, JL, Sanderson, BM, Santer, BD, Sherwood, SC, Simpson, IR, Stouffer, RJ & Williamson, MS 2019, 'Taking climate model evaluation to the next level', Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 102-110. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

@article{f21dbe52870b49fdb8b1f680595f3421,

title = "Taking climate model evaluation to the next level",

abstract = "Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.",

author = "Veronika Eyring and Cox, {Peter M.} and Flato, {Gregory M.} and Gleckler, {Peter J.} and Gab Abramowitz and Peter Caldwell and Collins, {William D.} and Gier, {Bettina K.} and Hall, {Alex D.} and Hoffman, {Forrest M.} and Hurtt, {George C.} and Alexandra Jahn and Jones, {Chris D.} and Klein, {Stephen A.} and Krasting, {John P.} and Lester Kwiatkowski and Ruth Lorenz and Eric Maloney and Meehl, {Gerald A.} and Pendergrass, {Angeline G.} and Robert Pincus and Ruane, {Alex C.} and Russell, {Joellen L.} and Sanderson, {Benjamin M.} and Santer, {Benjamin D.} and Sherwood, {Steven C.} and Simpson, {Isla R.} and Stouffer, {Ronald J.} and Williamson, {Mark S.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2019",

month = feb,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "9",

pages = "102--110",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

AU - Eyring, Veronika

AU - Cox, Peter M.

AU - Flato, Gregory M.

AU - Gleckler, Peter J.

AU - Abramowitz, Gab

AU - Caldwell, Peter

AU - Collins, William D.

AU - Gier, Bettina K.

AU - Hall, Alex D.

AU - Hoffman, Forrest M.

AU - Hurtt, George C.

AU - Jahn, Alexandra

AU - Jones, Chris D.

AU - Klein, Stephen A.

AU - Krasting, John P.

AU - Kwiatkowski, Lester

AU - Lorenz, Ruth

AU - Maloney, Eric

AU - Meehl, Gerald A.

AU - Pendergrass, Angeline G.

AU - Pincus, Robert

AU - Ruane, Alex C.

AU - Russell, Joellen L.

AU - Sanderson, Benjamin M.

AU - Santer, Benjamin D.

AU - Sherwood, Steven C.

AU - Simpson, Isla R.

AU - Stouffer, Ronald J.

AU - Williamson, Mark S.

PY - 2019/2/1

Y1 - 2019/2/1

N2 - Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

AB - Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059678724&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85059678724&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

DO - 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85059678724

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 9

SP - 102

EP - 110

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 2

ER -

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this