Space-Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq

Alex Braithwaite, Shane Johnson

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter


This chapter investigates an increasingly relevant yet understudied phenomenon in counterinsurgency (COIN) policy-making: the dilemma governments face in determining how best to balance the use of various coercive actions when attempting to minimize the threat posed by campaigns of violence carried out by non-state actors. It offers a discussion of the dynamics of the US/Coalition counterinsurgency in Iraq. The chapter discusses the rich source of data to be utilized in the remainder of the study before moving on to specify a number of analytical techniques for modelling the spatial, the temporal and, most crucially, the space-time distributions of insurgency and counterinsurgency, along with the co-evolution of these two types of events. Finally, the chapter offers a discussion of the findings, touching upon possible implications for military operations and future avenues for research on this topic.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationGlobal Dynamics
Subtitle of host publicationApproaches from Complexity Science
Number of pages19
ISBN (Electronic)9781118937464
ISBN (Print)9781118922286
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015


  • Counterinsurgency
  • Insurgency
  • Military operations
  • Policy-making
  • Space-time distributions

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Mathematics


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