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Short-term PV power forecasts based on a real-time irradiance monitoring network

  • Antonio T. Lorenzo
  • , William F. Holmgren
  • , Michael Leuthold
  • , Chang Ki Kim
  • , Alexander D. Cronin
  • , Eric A. Betterton

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    We built an irradiance sensor network that we are now using to make operational, real-time, intra-hour forecasts of solar power at key locations. We developed reliable irradiance sensor hardware platforms to enable these sensor network forecasts. Using 19 of the 55 irradiance sensors we have throughout Tucson, we make retrospective forecasts of 26 days in April and evaluate their performance. We find that that our network forecasts outperform a persistence model for 1 to 28 minute time horizons as measured by the root mean squared error. The sensor hardware, our network forecasting method, error statistics, and future improvements to our forecasts are discussed.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Title of host publication2014 IEEE 40th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2014
    PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
    Pages75-79
    Number of pages5
    ISBN (Electronic)9781479943982
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Oct 15 2014
    Event40th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2014 - Denver, United States
    Duration: Jun 8 2014Jun 13 2014

    Publication series

    Name2014 IEEE 40th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2014

    Other

    Other40th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2014
    Country/TerritoryUnited States
    CityDenver
    Period6/8/146/13/14

    Keywords

    • data analysis
    • forecasting
    • real-time systems
    • sensors
    • solar energy

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
    • Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials

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