Sensitivity of numerical simulations of explosive oceanic cyclogenesis to changes in physical parameterizations

The total diabatic heating accounts for about one-half of the cyclone's deepening rate, with baroclinic dynamics accounting for the remaining part. The absence of diabatic heating also leads to a systematic error in the position of the cyclone. Surface fluxes of sensible heat are responsible for about one-half of the deepening rate due to diabatic processes, while latent heating due to grid-scale resolvable precipitation in conjunction with surface latent heat flux accounts for most of the remaining half. An increase in the surface drag over the ocean to its larger land value was found to be of comparable importance to both surface sensible heat flux and latent heat release, but was only half as important as the total diabatic heating. The case-to-case variability exhibited by the 11-member ensemble is examined. The potential danger in attempting to generalize results from a single case of explosive cyclogenesis as being representative of those for the ensemble average is illustrated. -from Authors