TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonal responses of terrestrial carbon cycle to climate variations in CMIP5 models
T2 - Evaluation and projection
AU - Liu, Yongwen
AU - Piao, Shilong
AU - Lian, Xu
AU - Ciais, Philippe
AU - Smith, W. Kolby
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41530528 and 41561134016), the 111 Project, and the National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China. P.C. acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy Grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P. We acknowledge Chris Jones and the other two anonymous reviewers for their constructive and helpful comments that greatly improved the quality of this paper.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 American Meteorological Society.
PY - 2017/8/1
Y1 - 2017/8/1
N2 - Seventeen Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated, focusing on the seasonal sensitivities of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation during 1982-2005 and their changes over the twenty-first century. Temperature sensitivity of NPP in ESMs was generally consistent across northern high-latitude biomes but significantly more negative for tropical and subtropical biomes relative to satellite-derived estimates. The temperature sensitivity of NBP in both inversion-based and ESM estimates was generally consistent in March-May (MAM) and September- November (SON) for tropical forests, semiarid ecosystems, and boreal forests. By contrast, for inversion-based NBP estimates, temperature sensitivity of NBP was nonsignificant for June-August (JJA) for all biomes except boreal forest; whereas, for ESM NBP estimates, the temperature sensitivity for JJA was significantly negative for all biomes except shrublands and subarctic ecosystems.Both satellite-derivedNPP and inversion-basedNBP are often decoupled from precipitation, whereas ESM NPP and NBP estimates are generally positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting that ESMs are oversensitive to precipitation. Over the twenty-first century, changes in temperature sensitivities of NPP, Rh, and NBP are consistent across all RCPs but stronger under more intensive scenarios. The temperature sensitivity of NBP was found to decrease in tropics and subtropics and increase in northern high latitudes inMAMdue to an increased temperature sensitivity of NPP. Across all biomes, projected temperature sensitivity ofNPP decreased in JJAand SON. Projected precipitation sensitivity of NBP did not change across biomes, except over grasslands in MAM.
AB - Seventeen Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated, focusing on the seasonal sensitivities of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation during 1982-2005 and their changes over the twenty-first century. Temperature sensitivity of NPP in ESMs was generally consistent across northern high-latitude biomes but significantly more negative for tropical and subtropical biomes relative to satellite-derived estimates. The temperature sensitivity of NBP in both inversion-based and ESM estimates was generally consistent in March-May (MAM) and September- November (SON) for tropical forests, semiarid ecosystems, and boreal forests. By contrast, for inversion-based NBP estimates, temperature sensitivity of NBP was nonsignificant for June-August (JJA) for all biomes except boreal forest; whereas, for ESM NBP estimates, the temperature sensitivity for JJA was significantly negative for all biomes except shrublands and subarctic ecosystems.Both satellite-derivedNPP and inversion-basedNBP are often decoupled from precipitation, whereas ESM NPP and NBP estimates are generally positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting that ESMs are oversensitive to precipitation. Over the twenty-first century, changes in temperature sensitivities of NPP, Rh, and NBP are consistent across all RCPs but stronger under more intensive scenarios. The temperature sensitivity of NBP was found to decrease in tropics and subtropics and increase in northern high latitudes inMAMdue to an increased temperature sensitivity of NPP. Across all biomes, projected temperature sensitivity ofNPP decreased in JJAand SON. Projected precipitation sensitivity of NBP did not change across biomes, except over grasslands in MAM.
KW - Coupled models
KW - Interannual variability
KW - Land surface
KW - Model evaluation/performance
KW - Vegetation
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U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0555.1
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0555.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85025637022
VL - 30
SP - 6481
EP - 6503
JO - Journal of Climate
JF - Journal of Climate
SN - 0894-8755
IS - 16
ER -