Salinity-intrusion forecasting system for gambia river estuary

John C. Risley, D. Phillip Guertin, Martin M. Fogel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations


A methodology is presented for forecasting the response of salinity movement in a tidal estuary to seasonal rainfall and freshwater inflows. The forecasting procedure uses linked stochastic and deterministic models to provide information to aid decision makers. These models include: (1) Multisite stochastic rainfall data generation models used to generate long-term synthetic records of 10-day rainfall for stations in the upper river basin; (2) a deterministic rainfall-runoff multiple regression model used to compute a long-term record of 10-day mean flow on the river’s main stem based on real-time initial flow and rainfall data and synthetic rainfall records; and (3) a one-dimensional finite difference salinity intrusion model used to compute the movement of the 1 part per thousand (ppt) salinity level for each year of the computed long-term flow record. A cumulative probability distribution of the maximum salinity flushing distances along the estuary is developed as a tool for decision makers. The Gambia estuary in West Africa was used as a case study.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)339-352
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Issue number3
StatePublished - May 1993

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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