Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Kerry A. Hamilton, Joanna Ciol Harrison, Jade Mitchell, Mark Weir, Marc Verhougstraete, Charles N. Haas, A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Julie Libarkin, Tiong Gim Aw, Kyle Bibby, Aaron Bivins, Joe Brown, Kara Dean, Gwyneth Dunbar, Joseph N.S. Eisenberg, Monica Emelko, Daniel Gerrity, Patrick L. Gurian, Emma Hartnett, Michael JahneRachael M. Jones, Timothy R. Julian, Hongwan Li, Yanbin Li, Jacqueline Mac Donald Gibson, Gertjan Medema, J. Scott Meschke, Alexis Mraz, Heather Murphy, David Oryang, Emmanuel de Graft Johnson Owusu-Ansah, Emily Pasek, Abani K. Pradhan, Maria Tereza Pepe Razzolini, Michael O. Ryan, Mary Schoen, Patrick W.M.H. Smeets, Jeffrey Soller, Helena Solo-Gabriele, Clinton Williams, Amanda M. Wilson, Amy Zimmer-Faust, Jumana Alja'fari, Joan B. Rose

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need for more rapid and routine application of modeling approaches such as quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for protecting public health. QMRA is a transdisciplinary science dedicated to understanding, predicting, and mitigating infectious disease risks. To better equip QMRA researchers to inform policy and public health management, an Advances in Research for QMRA workshop was held to synthesize a path forward for QMRA research. We summarize insights from 41 QMRA researchers and experts to clarify the role of QMRA in risk analysis by (1) identifying key research needs, (2) highlighting emerging applications of QMRA; and (3) describing data needs and key scientific efforts to improve the science of QMRA. Key identified research priorities included using molecular tools in QMRA, advancing dose–response methodology, addressing needed exposure assessments, harmonizing environmental monitoring for QMRA, unifying a divide between disease transmission and QMRA models, calibrating and/or validating QMRA models, modeling co-exposures and mixtures, and standardizing practices for incorporating variability and uncertainty throughout the source-to-outcome continuum. Cross-cutting needs identified were to: develop a community of research and practice, integrate QMRA with other scientific approaches, increase QMRA translation and impacts, build communication strategies, and encourage sustainable funding mechanisms. Ultimately, a vision for advancing the science of QMRA is outlined for informing national to global health assessments, controls, and policies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2521-2536
Number of pages16
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume44
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2024

Keywords

  • coronavirus disease 2019
  • environmental health
  • pathogens
  • quantitative microbial risk assessment
  • risk analysis
  • safety

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Physiology (medical)

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