Reliability inference for field conditions from accelerated degradation testing

Haitao Liao, Elsayed A. Elsayed

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

160 Scopus citations


Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is usually conducted under deterministic stresses such as constant-stress, step-stress, and cyclic-stress. Based on ADT data, an ADT model is developed to predict reliability under normal (field) operating conditions. In engineering applications, the "standard" approach for reliability prediction assumes that the normal operating conditions are deterministic or simply uses the mean values of the stresses while ignoring their variability. Such an approach may lead to significant prediction errors. In this paper, we extend an ADT model obtained from constant-stress ADT experiments to predict field reliability by considering the stress variations. A case study is provided to demonstrate the proposed statistical inference procedure. The accuracy of the procedure is verified by simulation using various distributions of field stresses.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)576-587
Number of pages12
JournalNaval Research Logistics
Issue number6
StatePublished - Sep 2006
Externally publishedYes


  • Approximation
  • Brownian motion with drift
  • Itô calculus
  • Reliability prediction
  • Stochastic stress exposure

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Management Science and Operations Research


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