Relationship of ejection fraction and natriuretic peptide trajectories in heart failure with baseline reduced and mid-range ejection fraction

Background: The prognostic importance of trajectories of neurohormones relative to left ventricular function over time in heart failure with reduced and mid-range EF (HFrEF and HFmrEF) is poorly defined. Objective: To evaluate left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) trajectories in HFrEF and HFmrEF. Methods: Analyses of LVEF and BNP trajectories after incident HF admissions presenting with abnormal LV systolic function were performed using 3 methods: a Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariates, a dual longitudinal-survival model with shared random effects, and an unsupervised analysis to capture 3 discrete trajectories for each parameter. Results: Among 1,158 patients (68.9 ± 13.0 years, 53.3% female), both time-varying LVEF measurements (P=.001) and log-transformed BNP measurements (p-values=2 × 10⁻¹⁶) were independently associated with survival during 6 years after covariate adjustment. In the dual longitudinal/survival model, both LVEF and BNP trajectories again were independently associated with survival (P<.0001 in each model); however, LVEF was more dynamic than BNP (P <.0001 for time covariate in LVEF longitudinal model versus P=.88 for the time covariate in BNP longitudinal model). In the unsupervised analysis, 3 discrete LVEF trajectories (dividing the cohort into approximately thirds) and 3 discrete BNP trajectories were identified. Discrete LVEF and BNP trajectories had independent prognostic value in Kaplan-Meier analyses (P<.0001), and substantial membership variability across BNP and LVEF trajectories was noted. Conclusion: Although LVEF trajectories have greater temporal variation, BNP trajectories provide additive prognostication and an even stronger association with survival times in heart failure patients with abnormal LV systolic function.