@article{3107c4d2abb84d289ff1e5392e280ced,
title = "Regional dust storm modeling for health services: The case of valley fever",
abstract = "On 5 July 2011, a massive dust storm struck Phoenix, Arizona (USA), raising concerns for increased cases of valley fever (coccidioidomycosis, or, cocci). A quasi-operational experimental airborne dust forecast system predicted the event and provides model output for continuing analysis in collaboration with public health and air quality communities. An objective of this collaboration was to see if a signal in cases of valley fever in the region could be detected and traced to the storm - an American haboob. To better understand the atmospheric life cycle of cocci spores, the DREAM dust model (also herein, NMME-DREAM) was modified to simulate spore emission, transport and deposition. Inexact knowledge of where cocci-causing fungus grows, the low resolution of cocci surveillance and an overall active period for significant dust events complicate analysis of the effect of the 5 July 2011 storm. In the larger context of monthly to annual disease surveillance, valley fever statistics, when compared against PM10 observation networks and modeled airborne dust concentrations, may reveal a likely cause and effect. Details provided by models and satellites fill time and space voids in conventional approaches to air quality and disease surveillance, leading to land-atmosphere modeling and remote sensing that clearly mark a path to advance valley fever epidemiology, surveillance and risk avoidance.",
keywords = "Airborne dust, Disease surveillance, Dust storm, Forecasts, Haboob, Valley fever",
author = "Sprigg, {William A.} and Slobodan Nickovic and Galgiani, {John N.} and Goran Pejanovic and Slavko Petkovic and Mirjam Vujadinovic and Ana Vukovic and Milan Dacic and Scott DiBiase and Anup Prasad and Hesham El-Askary",
note = "Funding Information: The authors are grateful for information and insight generously given by participants in a 2011 Valley Fever Workshop in Tucson, Arizona: Julie Harris and Benjamin Park of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Clarissa Tsang, Shoana Anderson, Jessica Rigler and Rebecca Sunenshine of the Arizona Department of Health Services; Bryan Paris, Beth Gorman and Deborah Jentoft of Arizona Departments of Environmental Quality; and our university colleagues Mark Bultman, Andrew Comrie, David DuBois, Frederick S. Fisher, David Lary, Orion McCotter, Joel B. Sankey, Mike Saubolle, Frank Urban and Sherri L. Zendri. Mr. Raymond Gaddi, a senior intern from Troy High School in Orange, California assisted with climate analysis. Mirjana Arsenovi{\'c} Dacic of Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia and Brittany Hanna of Chapman University edited the manuscript. Helen Flowers (CDC) and Sue Estes from NASA Marshal Space Flight Center were instrumental in linking the disciplines of public health and environmental science in this study. Assistance of the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia and its South East European Virtual Climate Change Center is gratefully recognized. Principal support was provided by CDC{\textquoteright}s Environmental Public Health Tracking Program and NASA{\textquoteright}s Applied Sciences for Health and Air Quality contract NNM08AA04A. The model and satellite system reported herein owes much to lead-up NASA awards NNX08AL15G (ENPHASYS) and NNSO4AA19A (PHAIRS).",
year = "2014",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1016/j.aeolia.2014.03.001",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "14",
pages = "53--73",
journal = "Aeolian Research",
issn = "1875-9637",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
}