Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology

Margaret E.K. Evans; Peter B. Adler; Amy L. Angert; Sharmila M.N. Dey; Martin P. Girardin; Kelly A. Heilman; Stefan Klesse; Daniel L. Perret; Dov F. Sax; Seema N. Sheth; Michael Stemkovski; Jennifer L. Williams

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0

Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology

Margaret E.K. Evans
, Peter B. Adler
, Amy L. Angert
, Sharmila M.N. Dey
, Martin P. Girardin
, Kelly A. Heilman
, Stefan Klesse
, Daniel L. Perret
, Dov F. Sax
, Seema N. Sheth
, Michael Stemkovski
, Jennifer L. Williams

Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Ecologists often leverage patterns observed across spatial climate gradients to predict the impacts of climate change (space-for-time substitution). We highlight evidence that this can be misleading not just in the magnitude but in the direction of effects, explain why, and make suggestions for improving the reliability of ecological forecasts.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	809-812
Number of pages	4
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	15
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0
State	Published - Aug 2025

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

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10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0

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@article{0a9c847a0176466eb73d8842602258de,

title = "Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology",

abstract = "Ecologists often leverage patterns observed across spatial climate gradients to predict the impacts of climate change (space-for-time substitution). We highlight evidence that this can be misleading not just in the magnitude but in the direction of effects, explain why, and make suggestions for improving the reliability of ecological forecasts.",

author = "Evans, \{Margaret E.K.\} and Adler, \{Peter B.\} and Angert, \{Amy L.\} and Dey, \{Sharmila M.N.\} and Girardin, \{Martin P.\} and Heilman, \{Kelly A.\} and Stefan Klesse and Perret, \{Daniel L.\} and Sax, \{Dov F.\} and Sheth, \{Seema N.\} and Michael Stemkovski and Williams, \{Jennifer L.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Springer Nature Limited 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "15",

pages = "809--812",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology

AU - Evans, Margaret E.K.

AU - Adler, Peter B.

AU - Angert, Amy L.

AU - Dey, Sharmila M.N.

AU - Girardin, Martin P.

AU - Heilman, Kelly A.

AU - Klesse, Stefan

AU - Perret, Daniel L.

AU - Sax, Dov F.

AU - Sheth, Seema N.

AU - Stemkovski, Michael

AU - Williams, Jennifer L.

PY - 2025/8

Y1 - 2025/8

N2 - Ecologists often leverage patterns observed across spatial climate gradients to predict the impacts of climate change (space-for-time substitution). We highlight evidence that this can be misleading not just in the magnitude but in the direction of effects, explain why, and make suggestions for improving the reliability of ecological forecasts.

AB - Ecologists often leverage patterns observed across spatial climate gradients to predict the impacts of climate change (space-for-time substitution). We highlight evidence that this can be misleading not just in the magnitude but in the direction of effects, explain why, and make suggestions for improving the reliability of ecological forecasts.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105012265378

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105012265378#tab=citedBy

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0

DO - 10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0

M3 - Comment/debate

AN - SCOPUS:105012265378

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 15

SP - 809

EP - 812

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 8

ER -

Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology

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