Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

Yu Liu; Kim M. Cobb; Huiming Song; Qiang Li; Ching Yao Li; Takeshi Nakatsuka; Zhisheng An; Weijian Zhou; Qiufang Cai; Jinbao Li; Steven W. Leavitt; Changfeng Sun; Ruochen Mei; Chuan Chou Shen; Ming Hsun Chan; Junyan Sun; Libin Yan; Ying Lei; Yongyong Ma; Xuxiang Li; Deliang Chen; Hans W. Linderholm

doi:10.1038/ncomms15386

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

Yu Liu, Kim M. Cobb, Huiming Song, Qiang Li, Ching Yao Li, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Zhisheng An, Weijian Zhou, Qiufang Cai, Jinbao Li, Steven W. Leavitt, Changfeng Sun, Ruochen Mei, Chuan Chou Shen, Ming Hsun Chan, Junyan Sun, Libin Yan, Ying Lei, Yongyong Ma, Xuxiang LiDeliang Chen, Hans W. Linderholm

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150 Scopus citations

Abstract

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	15386
Journal	Nature communications
Volume	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15386
State	Published - May 30 2017

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Chemistry
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Physics and Astronomy

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Liu, Y., Cobb, K. M., Song, H., Li, Q., Li, C. Y., Nakatsuka, T., An, Z., Zhou, W., Cai, Q., Li, J., Leavitt, S. W., Sun, C., Mei, R., Shen, C. C., Chan, M. H., Sun, J., Yan, L., Lei, Y., Ma, Y., ... Linderholm, H. W. (2017). Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries. Nature communications, 8, Article 15386. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15386

Liu, Y, Cobb, KM, Song, H, Li, Q, Li, CY, Nakatsuka, T, An, Z, Zhou, W, Cai, Q, Li, J, Leavitt, SW, Sun, C, Mei, R, Shen, CC, Chan, MH, Sun, J, Yan, L, Lei, Y, Ma, Y, Li, X, Chen, D & Linderholm, HW 2017, 'Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries', Nature communications, vol. 8, 15386. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15386

@article{133dfdcec2b04831ae205ba71508287f,

title = "Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Ni{\~n}o variability relative to last eight centuries",

abstract = "The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Ni{\~n}o events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Ni{\~n}o events. Central Pacific El Ni{\~n}o events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NI{\~N}O4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Ni{\~n}o4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.",

author = "Yu Liu and Cobb, {Kim M.} and Huiming Song and Qiang Li and Li, {Ching Yao} and Takeshi Nakatsuka and Zhisheng An and Weijian Zhou and Qiufang Cai and Jinbao Li and Leavitt, {Steven W.} and Changfeng Sun and Ruochen Mei and Shen, {Chuan Chou} and Chan, {Ming Hsun} and Junyan Sun and Libin Yan and Ying Lei and Yongyong Ma and Xuxiang Li and Deliang Chen and Linderholm, {Hans W.}",

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doi = "10.1038/ncomms15386",

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AU - Liu, Yu

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Song, Huiming

AU - Li, Qiang

AU - Li, Ching Yao

AU - Nakatsuka, Takeshi

AU - An, Zhisheng

AU - Zhou, Weijian

AU - Cai, Qiufang

AU - Li, Jinbao

AU - Leavitt, Steven W.

AU - Sun, Changfeng

AU - Mei, Ruochen

AU - Shen, Chuan Chou

AU - Chan, Ming Hsun

AU - Sun, Junyan

AU - Yan, Libin

AU - Lei, Ying

AU - Ma, Yongyong

AU - Li, Xuxiang

AU - Chen, Deliang

AU - Linderholm, Hans W.

PY - 2017/5/30

Y1 - 2017/5/30

N2 - The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

AB - The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

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Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

Abstract

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