Rebellions

In this chapter, the authors analyse the temporal dynamics associated with the Naxal rebellion, using data on insurgent actions and counterinsurgent response. The authors employ a multivariate Hawkes process model and investigate how the rebellion changed by comparing parameter estimates and overall model fit for two time periods. They discuss how the temporal dynamics changed between the two time periods, considering any potential effect of this truce. The discussion begins by outlining the data used in the chapter and why it is of interest to consider distinct time periods before presenting the multivariate Hawkes process model. The authors also outline how the parameters in the model can be obtained from the data using a maximum-likelihood procedure and explain how they might be interpreted. Finally, they discuss the implications of these findings with respect to our understanding of the Naxal movement and to rebellions more generally.