Reanalysis of ancient eclipse, astronomic and geodetic data: A possible route to resolving the enigma of global sea-level rise

Jerry X. Mitrovica; John Wahr; Isamu Matsuyama; Archie Paulson; Mark E. Tamisiea

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.12.029

Reanalysis of ancient eclipse, astronomic and geodetic data: A possible route to resolving the enigma of global sea-level rise

Jerry X. Mitrovica, John Wahr, Isamu Matsuyama, Archie Paulson, Mark E. Tamisiea

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

51 Scopus citations

Abstract

Predictions of the Earth's response to the ice age appear to simultaneously reconcile a set of astronomical, geodetic and ancient eclipse observations related to changes in rotation, thus ruling out ice melting as a major contributor to 20th century sea-level rise. We demonstrate that the reconciliation disappears when an improved theory of rotational stability is applied. Furthermore, our reanalysis of longer satellite records renders previous estimates of the secular change in rotation rate suspect. The updated ice-age predictions and observations permit an anomalous 20th century ice flux of ∼1 mm/yr equivalent sea-level rise. Thus, the full suite of Earth rotation observations are consistent with a connection between climatic warming and recent melting of ice reservoirs.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	390-399
Number of pages	10
Journal	Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Volume	243
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.12.029
State	Published - Mar 30 2006
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Ancient eclipses
Earth rotation
Glacial rebound
Global sea level
Polar wander

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geochemistry and Petrology
Geophysics
Space and Planetary Science
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

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10.1016/j.epsl.2005.12.029

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title = "Reanalysis of ancient eclipse, astronomic and geodetic data: A possible route to resolving the enigma of global sea-level rise",

abstract = "Predictions of the Earth's response to the ice age appear to simultaneously reconcile a set of astronomical, geodetic and ancient eclipse observations related to changes in rotation, thus ruling out ice melting as a major contributor to 20th century sea-level rise. We demonstrate that the reconciliation disappears when an improved theory of rotational stability is applied. Furthermore, our reanalysis of longer satellite records renders previous estimates of the secular change in rotation rate suspect. The updated ice-age predictions and observations permit an anomalous 20th century ice flux of ∼1 mm/yr equivalent sea-level rise. Thus, the full suite of Earth rotation observations are consistent with a connection between climatic warming and recent melting of ice reservoirs.",

keywords = "Ancient eclipses, Earth rotation, Glacial rebound, Global sea level, Polar wander",

author = "Mitrovica, {Jerry X.} and John Wahr and Isamu Matsuyama and Archie Paulson and Tamisiea, {Mark E.}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank C. Cox and M.K. Cheng for providing their monthly J 2 estimates, M. Dumberry for providing a copy of his submitted manuscript, Erik Ivins and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments, and Andrew M Por for discussions related to this work. We acknowledge support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research and the Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science (JXM), NSF grant EAR-0087567 to the University of Colorado (JW, AP), and NASA grant NNG04GF09G (MET). ",

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doi = "10.1016/j.epsl.2005.12.029",

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AU - Mitrovica, Jerry X.

AU - Wahr, John

AU - Matsuyama, Isamu

AU - Paulson, Archie

AU - Tamisiea, Mark E.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank C. Cox and M.K. Cheng for providing their monthly J 2 estimates, M. Dumberry for providing a copy of his submitted manuscript, Erik Ivins and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments, and Andrew M Por for discussions related to this work. We acknowledge support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research and the Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science (JXM), NSF grant EAR-0087567 to the University of Colorado (JW, AP), and NASA grant NNG04GF09G (MET).

PY - 2006/3/30

Y1 - 2006/3/30

N2 - Predictions of the Earth's response to the ice age appear to simultaneously reconcile a set of astronomical, geodetic and ancient eclipse observations related to changes in rotation, thus ruling out ice melting as a major contributor to 20th century sea-level rise. We demonstrate that the reconciliation disappears when an improved theory of rotational stability is applied. Furthermore, our reanalysis of longer satellite records renders previous estimates of the secular change in rotation rate suspect. The updated ice-age predictions and observations permit an anomalous 20th century ice flux of ∼1 mm/yr equivalent sea-level rise. Thus, the full suite of Earth rotation observations are consistent with a connection between climatic warming and recent melting of ice reservoirs.

AB - Predictions of the Earth's response to the ice age appear to simultaneously reconcile a set of astronomical, geodetic and ancient eclipse observations related to changes in rotation, thus ruling out ice melting as a major contributor to 20th century sea-level rise. We demonstrate that the reconciliation disappears when an improved theory of rotational stability is applied. Furthermore, our reanalysis of longer satellite records renders previous estimates of the secular change in rotation rate suspect. The updated ice-age predictions and observations permit an anomalous 20th century ice flux of ∼1 mm/yr equivalent sea-level rise. Thus, the full suite of Earth rotation observations are consistent with a connection between climatic warming and recent melting of ice reservoirs.

KW - Ancient eclipses

KW - Earth rotation

KW - Glacial rebound

KW - Global sea level

KW - Polar wander

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Reanalysis of ancient eclipse, astronomic and geodetic data: A possible route to resolving the enigma of global sea-level rise

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Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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