@article{923351a4921a45d4ab19d0a6484e0fe6,
title = "Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends",
abstract = "Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid- and high-latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record-breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.",
keywords = "Arctic amplification, Earth system models, extreme heat, normalized warming trends, tropical amplification, warming trends",
author = "Xubin Zeng and {Reeves Eyre}, {J. E.Jack} and Dixon, {Ross D.} and Jorge Arevalo",
note = "Funding Information: This research was supported by the DOE ESM Program (DE-SC0016533 and through the LLNL subcontract B639244) and the NASA MAP Program (NNX14AM02G). We thank the anonymous reviewer for constructive comments and suggestions for our significant revision of the original manuscript. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access. Funding Information: This research was supported by the DOE ESM Program (DE‐SC0016533 and through the LLNL subcontract B639244) and the NASA MAP Program (NNX14AM02G). We thank the anonymous reviewer for constructive comments and suggestions for our significant revision of the original manuscript. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",
year = "2021",
month = may,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2020GL091626",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "48",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "10",
}