Progression trajectories of chronic overlapping pain conditions unveiled across two large clinical data warehouses

Chronic overlapping pain conditions (COPCs) affect a wide population and incur a substantial disease burden including comorbid mental disorders. Although these comorbidities have been extensively documented, the longitudinal trajectories of their onset, particularly for those with three or more conditions, have been rarely studied. We conducted retrospective cohort studies to identify statistically significant COPCs and mental health trajectories in the All of Us Research Program (AoU v8, 338,170 persons) and the Mayo Data Warehouse (3,957,444 individuals). For each trajectory, cases were matched with controls by demographic factors. Logistic regression was then applied to assess the increased likelihood of the final condition given the prior conditions in that sequence. The significant trajectories were visualized as a “pain forest.” More than 88% of trajectories identified from AoU (Male: 78, Female: 361) were reproducible in the Mayo Data Warehouse data (Male: 361, Female: 1286), with female trajectories encompassing more than 96% of the male trajectories. The findings indicate that chronic low back pain generally occurs earlier than other conditions, while fibromyalgia tends to follow other COPCs. Endometriosis seems to be associated with an increased prevalence of COPCs in women. In addition, longer trajectories are associated with a greater risk of developing additional COPC or mental condition. The results offer new insights into the progression of COPCs and associated mental conditions, which may inform healthcare providers and patients in managing and preventing exacerbation of these conditions.