Prediction of medial tibiofemoral compartment joint space loss progression using volumetric cartilage measurements: Data from the FNIH OA biomarkers consortium

Objectives: Investigating the association between baseline cartilage volume measurements (and initial 24th month volume loss) with medial compartment Joint-Space-Loss (JSL) progression (>0.7 mm) during 24–48th months of study. Methods: Case and control cohorts (Biomarkers Consortium subset from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)) were defined as participants with (n=297) and without (n=303) medial JSL progression (during 24–48th months). Cartilage volume measurements (baseline and 24th month loss) were obtained at five knee plates (medial-tibial, lateral-tibial, medial-femoral, lateral-femoral and patellar), and standardized values were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used with adjustment for known confounders. Artificial-Neural-Network analysis was conducted by Multi-Layer-Perceptrons (MLPs) including baseline determinants, and baseline (1) and interval changes (2) in cartilage volumes. Results: Larger baseline lateral-femoral cartilage volume was predictive of medial JSL (OR: 1.29 (1.01–1.64)). Greater initial 24th month lateral-femoral cartilage volume-loss (OR: 0.48 (0.27–0.84)) had protective effect on medial JSL during 24–48th months of study. Baseline and interval changes in lateral-femoral cartilage volume, were the most important estimators for medial JSL progression (importance values: 0.191(0.177–0.204), 0.218(0.207–0.228)) in the ANN analyses. Conclusions: Cartilage volumes (both at baseline and their change during the initial 24 months) in the lateral femoral plate were predictive of medial JSL progression. Key Points: • Baseline lateral femoral cartilage volume is directly associated with medial JSL progression. • 24-month lateral femoral cartilage loss is inversely associated with medial JSL progression. • Lateral femoral cartilage volume is most important in association with medial JSL progression.