Precipitation and time effects on vegetation change in Southern Arizona abandoned farmland

Farmland abandonment represents a significant issue globally, and in arid environments reclaiming ecosystems is challenging. In the Sonoran Desert, much irrigated farmland has been abandoned since 1950. Our objective was to compare changes in vegetative (canopy) cover and species over a 26-year period on abandoned farmland and unfarmed controls in southcentral Arizona (precipitation <300 mm/year). We evaluated time since abandonment and precipitation effects on these variables between 1976 and 2003 with point frame methods on eight farmland sites using stepwise multiple regression. Results suggest antecedent precipitation (AP) is more important than time since abandonment in explaining cover changes. On 26 abandoned sites, we used non-parametric ANOVA to show that vegetative cover (point frame and line intercept methods) declined by about 43% from 1977 to 2023, which was greater than on non-farmed controls. Few farmlands had cover and species composition like reference communities in 2003. Paired farmland-control sites exhibited similar vegetation in 1977 and 2003 suggesting local factors (e.g., soil chemistry, roadways) may have overwhelmed that of farming. Uninterrupted (natural) surface water flow may predict where revegetation was most successful. Our research indicates that farmland may exist in alternative states, and passive revegetation will not reestablish native Sonoran Desert communities on most abandoned farmland sites.