Nearly one dimensional dynamics in an epidemic

William M. Schaffer, Mark Kot

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

175 Scopus citations


The incidence of measles in New York City and Baltimore was studied using recently developed techniques in nonlinear dynamics. The data, monthly case reports for the years 1928-1963, suggest almost two dimensional, chaotic flows whose essential attributes are captured by one dimensional, unimodal maps. The effects of noise, inevitable in ecological and epidemiological systems are discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)403-427
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Issue number2
StatePublished - Jan 21 1985

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics


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