Modeling the dynamics of medical information through web forums in medical industry

In this study, we propose the web forum analysis model that can support corporate foresight activities. The medical industry can utilize the rich, objective decision-making data contained within web forums through which participants who have common interests disseminate and receive information and form self-contained communities. We collect and analyze the contents of the web forum using Web, text, and data mining techniques. We identify the major needs of Alzheimer disease patients and their families. We also show how to track the time-series patterns of major topics providing insight to the medical industry. Furthermore, we study the dynamic mechanisms of major needs using the epidemic model and describe how users in a web forum collectively participate in topic discussions. Using the proposed model, the medical industry can predict the future market by estimating how long a topic will persist and how strongly a topic attracts attention.