Metropolitan/non-metropolitan divergence: A spatial Markov chain approach

This article examines spatial aspects of distributional dynamics and finds that the distribution of US metropolitan incomes relative to their neighbours has diverged during the 1969-1999 period. Use of a spatial Markov approach shows that non-metropolitan neighbours of metropolitan regions have tended to converge during the period, with roughly equal rates of upward and downward mobility within the distribution. Non-metropolitan regions, not neighbouring metropolitan regions, show much less tendency to converge and reveal higher rates of downward rather than upward mobility. Results highlight regional differences in mobility coherence, with metropolitan areas in the West tending to outpace their non-metropolitan neighbours.