Measuring Arizona Agriculture’s Export Contributions and Sensitivity to Trade Policy Shifts

In March 2025, U.S. agricultural producers faced the prospect of new tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs on exports to other countries. Although the structure, rates, and mechanisms of these measures were unclear at that moment, decision-makers needed objective estimates to guide their actions. In response to information needs of Arizona businesses, the Arizona Department of Agriculture, and the Governor’s Office, this study provided baseline estimates of the state-level economic contribution of Arizona’s agricultural and food exports in 2022, including bulk crops and livestock, agricultural inputs, and food and fiber manufacturing.¹ We used input-output modelling to estimate the direct contribution of exports from these industries to the state’s economy and the economic activity supported through multiplier effects in industries outside agriculture and agribusiness. The 2022 IMPLAN input-output model (IMPLAN Group, LLC, 2022) was modified to better reflect Arizona’s agricultural production and spending patterns using 2022 Census of Agriculture data. Export values were estimated using data from USDA ERS² and USA Trade Online.³ To provide a refined estimate of Arizona’s export values, we reconciled these two data sources commodity by commodity, excluding trans-shipments of goods not produced locally. The approach used in this study does not directly estimate the potential impacts of new tariffs on Arizona’s agricultural economy. It does, however, identify the agricultural sectors that are most dependent on exports and most sensitive to increased input costs, providing a baseline for future trade policy analysis. Even when details about the potential tariffs were not available, this study helped identify which agricultural sectors in Arizona are most vulnerable to the impacts of tariffs, the extent to which producers may be able to absorb increased input costs, and the potential economic losses of tariff-induced cost increases.