Longer-term risks associated with 10-year survival after heart transplantation in the cyclosporine era

Background: Long-term survival after heart transplantation is common in the cyclosporine era. However, there are few data documenting pre-transplant/peri-operative factors predictive of truly long-term survival (>10 years). The purpose of this study is to identify factors associated with 10-year survival after heart transplantation. Methods: Our study population included 197 adults who survived >6 months and died <10 years after heart transplant (medium-term group) and 140 adults who survived >10 years after heart transplant (long-term group) between December 1980 and May 2001. A comparison was done between the two groups and we used multivariate analysis to identify which factors predicted 10-year survival. Results: The long-term group had younger recipient and donor age, lower recipient body mass index at transplant, shorter waiting time and lower percentages of ischemic etiology/male recipient/non-white recipient. Kaplan-Meier plots of freedom from graft coronary artery disease and malignancy showed later onset patterns in the long-term group compared with the medium-term group. Multivariate analysis showed that white recipient, younger recipient and lower recipient body mass index at heart transplant were factors significantly associated with 10-year survival. Conclusions: Several pre-transplant/peri-operative factors were associated with survival beyond 10 years after heart transplantation. Stratified/tailored strategies based on these factors may be helpful to attain longer-term survival of recipients with higher risks.