Logistic regression and Bayesian approaches in modeling acceptance of Male circumcision in Pune, India

  • C. Yoo
  • , A. Saxena
  • , K. Krupp
  • , V. Kulkarni
  • , S. Kulkarni
  • , J. D. Klausner
  • , J. Devieux
  • , P. Madhivanan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Discernment analyses in survey data are being developed to help researchers better understand intentions of surveyed subjects. These models can aid in successful decision-making by allowing calculation of the likelihood of a particular outcome based on subject's known characteristics. There are many modern discernment analyses which have been used to develop predictive models in many different scientific disciplines areas. Predictive models are used in a variety of public health and medical domains. These models are constructed from observed cases, which are typically collected from various studies. The data can be preprocessed and serve as data to build statistical and machine learning models. The most frequently used discernment analysis in epidemiological datasets with binary outcomes is logistic regression. However, modern discernment Bayesian methods - i.e., Naïve Bayes Classifier and Bayesian networks - have shown promising results, especially with datasets that have a large number of independent variables (>30). A study was conducted to review and compare these models, elucidate the advantages and disadvantages of each, and provide criteria for model selection. The two models were used for estimation of acceptance of medical male circumcision among a sample of 457 males in Pune, India on the basis of their answers to a survey that included questions on sociodemographics, HIV prevention knowledge, high-risk behaviors, and other characteristics. Although the models demonstrated similar performance, the Bayesian methods performed better especially in predicting negative cases, i.e., subjects who did not want to undergo medical male circumcision in cross validation evaluations. Since there were less negative cases in the dataset, this indicates with smaller sample size, Bayesian methods perform better than logistic regression. Identifying models' unique characteristics - strengths as well as limitations - may help improve decision-making.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODSIM 2013
EditorsJulia Piantadosi, Robert Anderssen, John Boland
PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc. (MSSANZ)
Pages2023-2028
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9780987214331
StatePublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes
Event20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation - Adapting to Change: The Multiple Roles of Modelling, MODSIM 2013 - Held jointly with the 22nd National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research, ASOR 2013 and the DSTO led Defence Operations Research Symposium, DORS 2013 - Adelaide, Australia
Duration: Dec 1 2013Dec 6 2013

Publication series

NameProceedings - 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODSIM 2013

Conference

Conference20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation - Adapting to Change: The Multiple Roles of Modelling, MODSIM 2013 - Held jointly with the 22nd National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research, ASOR 2013 and the DSTO led Defence Operations Research Symposium, DORS 2013
Country/TerritoryAustralia
CityAdelaide
Period12/1/1312/6/13

Keywords

  • Bayesian networks
  • Discernment analyses
  • Logistic Regression

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Information Systems and Management
  • Modeling and Simulation

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