Local Ice Mass Balance Rates via Bayesian Analysis of Mars Polar Trough Migration

With the aim of better understanding the past depositional environment of the north polar region of Mars, we infer local ice accumulation and retreat rates in the area between 86° and 87°N and 16°–20°E. We follow a novel approach utilizing a Bayesian framework with observations of bounding surfaces associated with the migration of two polar spiral troughs. Over time, spiral troughs have migrated toward the north pole due to ice accumulation, sublimation, and wind transport. We relate the record of trough migration with local ice accumulation and retreat rates using a phenomenological migration model and explore the climate parameters that affect these rates using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Using this data-driven approach, we find best fit mean accumulation rates of 0.11–0.18 mm/yr in the upper 500 m of the stratigraphy of our study region. These mean accumulation rates correspond to trough ages of over 4 Myr, which implies that the north polar cap is older than most current assumptions. We also find that the relationship between accumulation rates and the obliquity of Mars is complex, with periods of positive correlation occurring in the last several Myr. Future work extending this analysis to all troughs in the cap will further constrain these relationships and ages.