@article{d5aaaa321fb546e9a1e209a85bffbbbd,
title = "Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants",
abstract = "Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species{\textquoteright} occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species{\textquoteright} climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.",
keywords = "COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, Climate change, demographic compensation, ecological niche models, matrix population models, population dynamics, spatial demography, species distribution models, species interactions–abiotic stress hypothesis, stress gradient hypothesis",
author = "Cserg{\H o}, {Anna M.} and Roberto Salguero-G{\'o}mez and Olivier Broennimann and Coutts, {Shaun R.} and Antoine Guisan and Angert, {Amy L.} and Erik Welk and Iain Stott and Enquist, {Brian J.} and Brian McGill and Svenning, {Jens Christian} and Cyrille Violle and Buckley, {Yvonne M.}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank J. Lee-Yaw for support in early stages of the project. We thank the data providers including contributors to BIEN and Z. Barina from the Hungarian National History Museum. AMC was funded by the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship GEODEM-658651 under The EU Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. This publication has emanated from research supported in part by a research grant from Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) under Grant Number 15/ERCD/2803 (YMB). OB was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant to AG, 31003A-1528661). RS-G was supported by the ARC DE140100505 and NERC IRF NE/M018458/1 grants. JCS considers this work a contribution to Center for Informatics Research on Complexity in Ecology (CIRCE), funded by Aarhus University and Aarhus University Research Foundation. CV was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) Starting Grant Project {\textquoteleft}Ecophysiological and biophysical constraints on domestication in crop plants{\textquoteright} (Grant ERC-StG-2014-639706-CONSTRAINTS). We thank the support by J. Vaupel at the Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research to RS-G to develop, sustain and make open access the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",
year = "2017",
month = aug,
doi = "10.1111/ele.12794",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "20",
pages = "969--980",
journal = "Ecology Letters",
issn = "1461-023X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "8",
}