L'ultime instrument de gestion des résultats: L'utilisation de la charge d'impôts pour concrétiser les prévisions des analystes

Translated title of the contribution: Last-chance earnings management: Using the tax expense to meet analysts' forecasts

Dan S. Dhaliwal, Cristi A. Gleason, Lillian F. Mills

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

259 Scopus citations


We assert that the tax expense is a powerful context in which to study earnings management, because it is one of the last accounts closed prior to earnings announcements. Although many pre-tax accruals must be posted in the year-end general ledger, managers estimate and negotiate tax expense with their auditors immediately prior to earnings announcements. We hypothesize that changes from third- to fourth-quarter effective tax rates (ETRs) are negatively related to whether and how much a firm's earnings absent tax expense management miss analysts' consensus forecast, a proxy for target earnings. We measure earnings absent tax expense management as actual pre-tax earnings adjusted for the annual ETR reported at the third quarter. We provide robust evidence that firms lower their projected ETRs when they miss the consensus forecast, which is consistent with firms decreasing their tax expense if non-tax sources of earnings management are insufficient to achieve targets. We also find that firms that exceed earnings targets increase their ETR, but this effect is less significant. By studying the tax expense in total, rather than narrow components of deferred tax expense, our results provide general evidence that reported taxes are used to manage earnings.

Translated title of the contributionLast-chance earnings management: Using the tax expense to meet analysts' forecasts
Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)431-459
Number of pages29
JournalContemporary Accounting Research
Issue number2
StatePublished - Jun 2004


  • Earnings management
  • Target earnings
  • Tax expense

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics


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