K-Nearest Neighbor for Short Term Water Demand Forecasting

Paulo José A. Oliveira, Dominic L. Boccelli

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Short-term water demand forecasting is a required procedure for the optimal real-time control of water distribution systems when, for example, reducing operational costs associated with pumping. The forecasting literature presents a variety of methods ranging from linear seasonal ARIMA models to non-linear support vector regression to black box artificial neural networks. In general, hourly water demand time series are characterized by a strong double seasonal dependency and a non-linear temporal correlation. Therefore, in order to obtain the most suitable representation one needs to select a time series model that respects these features. This paper intends to evaluate the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) approach to forecast the short-term water demand time series. The kNN approach is a pattern recognition algorithm where the forecasted values are directly determined by the most similar past observations. To assess performance, robust evaluation criteria such as reliability and sharpness will be used to evaluate the kNN approach compared with the traditional seasonal ARMA model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
Subtitle of host publicationHydraulics and Waterways and Water Distribution Systems Analysis - Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
EditorsBrian Van Weele, Christopher N. Dunn
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages501-510
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780784480625
DOIs
StatePublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event17th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017 - Sacramento, United States
Duration: May 21 2017May 25 2017

Publication series

NameWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017: Hydraulics and Waterways and Water Distribution Systems Analysis - Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017

Other

Other17th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CitySacramento
Period5/21/175/25/17

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)

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