TY - JOUR
T1 - Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 ce
AU - Xu, Guobao
AU - Broadman, Ellie
AU - Dorado-Liñán, Isabel
AU - Klippel, Lara
AU - Meko, Matthew
AU - Büntgen, Ulf
AU - De Mil, Tom
AU - Esper, Jan
AU - Gunnarson, Björn
AU - Hartl, Claudia
AU - Krusic, Paul J.
AU - Linderholm, Hans W.
AU - Ljungqvist, Fredrik C.
AU - Ludlow, Francis
AU - Panayotov, Momchil
AU - Seim, Andrea
AU - Wilson, Rob
AU - Zamora-Reyes, Diana
AU - Trouet, Valerie
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/10/17
Y1 - 2024/10/17
N2 - The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1–3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic–European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300–2004 ce (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 ce as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.
AB - The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1–3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic–European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300–2004 ce (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 ce as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x
DO - 10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x
M3 - Article
C2 - 39322676
AN - SCOPUS:85204809461
SN - 0028-0836
VL - 634
SP - 600
EP - 608
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
IS - 8034
ER -