Human learning of hierarchical graphs

Humans are exposed to sequences of events in the environment, and the interevent transition probabilities in these sequences can be modeled as a graph or network. Many real-world networks are organized hierarchically and while much is known about how humans learn basic transition graph topology, whether and to what degree humans can learn hierarchical structures in such graphs remains unknown. We probe the mental estimates of transition probabilities via the surprisal effect phenomenon: humans react more slowly to less expected transitions. Using mean-field predictions and numerical simulations, we show that surprisal effects are stronger for finer-level than coarser-level hierarchical transitions, and that surprisal effects at coarser levels are difficult to detect for limited learning times or in small samples. Using a serial response experiment with human participants (n=100), we replicate our predictions by detecting a surprisal effect at the finer level of the hierarchy but not at the coarser level of the hierarchy. We then evaluate the presence of a trade-off in learning, whereby humans who learned the finer level of the hierarchy better also tended to learn the coarser level worse, and vice versa. This study elucidates the processes by which humans learn sequential events in hierarchical contexts. More broadly, our work charts a road map for future investigation of the neural underpinnings and behavioral manifestations of graph learning.