Abstract
Claims of a highly significant detection of a period of 25-30 myr in the records of major extinction events and large craters have prompted us to examine how dating errors degrade a periodic signal. We ran Monte Carlo simulations in which we placed eight events at equal time intervals and then displaced each event by a random error chosen from a normal distribution. If the r.m.s. error is greater than about 13% of the period, the periodic data is usually no longer distinguishable from random data at the 90% confidence level. At present, the r.m.s. dating errors in extinction episodes and craters over the last 250 myr are at least 6 myr or ≳20% of a 25- to 30-myr period. We conclude that even if a periodicity were present, it would not normally be detected at a statistically significant level by the tests used in the literature. The apparent periodicity is probably due to a statistical fluke or subjective bias.
Original language | English (US) |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 213-219 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Icarus |
Volume | 77 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Jan 1989 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Astronomy and Astrophysics
- Space and Planetary Science