Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Terry Horgan; Anna Mahtani

doi:10.1007/s10670-011-9316-9

Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Terry Horgan, Anna Mahtani

Philosophy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

We present a new argument for the claim that in the Sleeping Beauty problem, the probability that the coin comes up heads is 1/3. Our argument depends on a principle for the updating of probabilities that we call 'generalized conditionalization', and on a species of generalized conditionalization we call 'synchronic conditionalization on old information'. We set forth a rationale for the legitimacy of generalized conditionalization, and we explain why our new argument for thirdism is immune to two attacks that Pust (Synthese 160:97-101, 2008) has leveled at other arguments for thirdism.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	333-351
Number of pages	19
Journal	Erkenntnis
Volume	78
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-011-9316-9
State	Published - Apr 2013

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Philosophy
Logic

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Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem

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