Future change of summer hypoxia in coastal California Current

Hui Shi, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Steven J. Bograd, Marisol García-Reyes, Michael G. Jacox, Bryan A. Black, William J. Sydeman, Ryan R. Rykaczewski

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The occurrences of summer hypoxia in coastal California Current can significantly affect the benthic and pelagic habitat and lead to complex ecosystem changes. Model-simulated hypoxia in this region is strongly spatially heterogeneous, and its future changes show uncertainties depending on the model used. Here, we used an ensemble of the new generation Earth system models to examine the present-day and future changes of summer hypoxia in this region. We applied model-specific thresholds combined with empirical bias adjustments of the dissolved oxygen variance to identify hypoxia. We found that, although simulated dissolved oxygen in the subsurface varies across the models both in mean state and variability, after necessary bias adjustments, the ensemble shows reasonable hypoxia frequency compared with a hindcast in terms of spatial distribution and average frequency in the coastal region. The models project increases in hypoxia frequency under warming, which is in agreement with deoxygenation projected consistently across the models for the coastal California Current. This work demonstrated a practical approach of using the multi-model ensemble for regional studies while presenting methodology limitations and gaps in observations and models to improve these limitations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number1205536
JournalFrontiers in Marine Science
Volume10
DOIs
StatePublished - 2023

Keywords

  • CMIP6
  • Earth system models
  • coastal California Current
  • future projection
  • hypoxia
  • multi-model ensemble

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oceanography
  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Aquatic Science
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Ocean Engineering

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