Fundamentals of reliability analysis

A brief history of the development of uncertainty quantifications, probabilistic models to consider risk-based analysis and design concepts, and their engineering applications are presented in this introductory chapter. The quantification of uncertainties in design variables and approaches used to propagate them from the variable to the system level are presented. The basic concept of risk evaluation in then presented. Because risk is always estimated corresponding to a performance function, how to generate them is discussed. The performance function can be explicit or implicit functions of design variables. Several risk evaluation procedures including simulation for both explicit and implicit performance functions are presented. Risk evaluation for correlated variables is also briefly discussed. The selection of computer programs for risk estimation is discussed. Education of the risk-based design concept can be at best categorized as nonuniform and limited only to graduate education in most cases. It cannot be overlooked any more.