Forecasts of PV power output using power measurements of 80 residential PV installs

Vincent P.A. Lonij, Vijai Thottathil Jayadevan, Adria E. Brooks, Jeffrey J. Rodriguez, Kevin Koch, Michael Leuthold, Alexander D. Cronin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

32 Scopus citations


We describe a new method to forecast the power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems under cloudy skies. We forecast cloud-induced fluctuations in output power by using measurements from 80 residential rooftop PV systems as an input to a forecasting algorithm described here. We compare the performance of our new method to results from our numerical weather model, and also to forecasts based on our images from a ground-based sun-tracking sky camera. Our numerical weather model provides forecasts of irradiance up to several days in advance. In comparison, our network of PV systems can forecast output up to an hour in advance. Our sky-camera image analysis algorithms can be used to forecast 10 minutes in advance. We also show how hybrid methods can improve the accuracy of hour-ahead forecasts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProgram - 38th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2012
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2012
Event38th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2012 - Austin, TX, United States
Duration: Jun 3 2012Jun 8 2012

Publication series

NameConference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
ISSN (Print)0160-8371


Other38th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2012
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityAustin, TX


  • Clouds
  • Forecasting
  • Photovoltaic systems
  • Smart grids
  • Solar energy
  • Solar power generation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering


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