TY - GEN
T1 - Forecasts of PV power output using power measurements of 80 residential PV installs
AU - Lonij, Vincent P.A.
AU - Jayadevan, Vijai Thottathil
AU - Brooks, Adria E.
AU - Rodriguez, Jeffrey J.
AU - Koch, Kevin
AU - Leuthold, Michael
AU - Cronin, Alexander D.
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - We describe a new method to forecast the power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems under cloudy skies. We forecast cloud-induced fluctuations in output power by using measurements from 80 residential rooftop PV systems as an input to a forecasting algorithm described here. We compare the performance of our new method to results from our numerical weather model, and also to forecasts based on our images from a ground-based sun-tracking sky camera. Our numerical weather model provides forecasts of irradiance up to several days in advance. In comparison, our network of PV systems can forecast output up to an hour in advance. Our sky-camera image analysis algorithms can be used to forecast 10 minutes in advance. We also show how hybrid methods can improve the accuracy of hour-ahead forecasts.
AB - We describe a new method to forecast the power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems under cloudy skies. We forecast cloud-induced fluctuations in output power by using measurements from 80 residential rooftop PV systems as an input to a forecasting algorithm described here. We compare the performance of our new method to results from our numerical weather model, and also to forecasts based on our images from a ground-based sun-tracking sky camera. Our numerical weather model provides forecasts of irradiance up to several days in advance. In comparison, our network of PV systems can forecast output up to an hour in advance. Our sky-camera image analysis algorithms can be used to forecast 10 minutes in advance. We also show how hybrid methods can improve the accuracy of hour-ahead forecasts.
KW - Clouds
KW - Forecasting
KW - Photovoltaic systems
KW - Smart grids
KW - Solar energy
KW - Solar power generation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84869467842&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84869467842&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/PVSC.2012.6318280
DO - 10.1109/PVSC.2012.6318280
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84869467842
SN - 9781467300643
T3 - Conference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
SP - 3300
EP - 3305
BT - Program - 38th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2012
T2 - 38th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2012
Y2 - 3 June 2012 through 8 June 2012
ER -