Forecasting the impact of climate on food systems: Model testing and model linkage

This paper discusses the importance of testing models which may be used to forecast the impact of climate on society. Model testing using sensitivity analysis and validation techniques is illustrated with two models: (1) the YIELD model which simulates the impact of climate on crop yields of several major crops, and (2) the International Futures Simulation model which can be used to simulate the impact of crop yield changes on the world food system. The problems of linking such models to each other are also discussed.