@article{93c1dde246f044a18708e95e1ad54184,
title = "Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: A demographic–economic approach",
abstract = "The limitations of available migration data preclude a time-series approach to modeling interstate migration. The method presented here combines aspects of the demographic and economic approaches to forecasting migration in a manner compatible with existing data. Migration rates are modeled to change in response to changes in economic conditions. When applied to recently constructed data on migration based on income tax returns and then compared to standard demographic projections, the demographic–economic approach has a 20% lower total error in forecasting net migration by state for cohorts of laborforce age.",
keywords = "Cohort-component model, Labor-force migration, Markov models, Migration, Population forecasting",
author = "Isserman, {Andrew M.} and Plane, {David A.} and Rogerson, {Peter A.} and Beaumont, {Paul M.}",
note = "Funding Information: The method described in this article was developed at the Census Bureau in response to that recommendation under a grant from the National Science Foundation to the American Statistical Association. The method is part of a large modeling system known as ECESIS , which includes econometric models of the economies of each state and the District of Columbia (see Beaumont et al. 1985). ECESIS permits the simultaneous determination of regional economic and demographic change. Population change affects economic conditions, and economic conditions affect population change, primarily through migration. Funding Information: * Andrew M. Isserman is Director, Regional Research Institute, and Professor, Ekonomics and Geography, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506. David A. Plane is Assistant Professor, Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. Peter A. Rogerson is Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering and Geography, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60201. Paul M. Beaumont is Assistant Professor, Go- nomics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907. This article describes research carried out at the U.S. Bureau of the Census by the authors when Isserman was Research Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and Plane, Rogerson, and Beaumont were Research Trainees under a grant from the National Science Foundation to the ASA. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors also thank the following for their comments and suggestions: Bill Bell, Richard Engels, John Irvine, John Long, Larry Long, David McMillen, Greg Spencer, and Signe Wetrogan of the U.S. Bureau of the Census; Roger Bolton, Rex Honey, Jacques Ledent, Michael McNulty, William Milne, Tom. Plaut, and Gerry Rushton; and Joseph Kadane and the anonymous referees and associate editor of this journal. An earlier version of this article was presented in November 1981 at the North American Regional Science Association meeting.",
year = "1985",
month = jun,
doi = "10.1080/01621459.1985.10478109",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "80",
pages = "277--285",
journal = "Journal of the American Statistical Association",
issn = "0162-1459",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Ltd.",
number = "390",
}