Abstract
Viral load fluctuates during the natural course of asymptomatic HIV-1 infection. It is often assumed that these fluctuations are random around a set point or underlying growth trend. Using longitudinal data, we tested whether fluctuations in viral load can be better explained by changes in CD4+ T-cell count than by a set point or trend of exponential growth. The correspondence between viral load and CD4+ T-cell count could be described by a simple mathematical relation. Using a bootstrapping approach, the hypothesis that viral load fluctuations are random around a set point was rejected with p < .00005. The hypothesis that viral load fluctuations are random around a trend of exponential growth was rejected with p < .005. Viral load data was explained better by changes in CD4+ T-cell counts than by a set point or by a trend of exponential growth. The implications of this finding for improved prognostication discussed.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 375-379 |
Number of pages | 5 |
Journal | Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes |
Volume | 23 |
Issue number | 5 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Apr 15 2000 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- CD4 cell count
- Longitudinal HIV
- Predictive value of tests
- Prognosis
- Viral load
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Infectious Diseases
- Pharmacology (medical)