Fluctuations in HIV-1 viral load are correlated to CD4+ T-lymphocyte count during the natural course of infection

Joanna Masel, Ramy A. Arnaout, Thomas R. O'Brien, James J. Goedert, Alun L. Lloyd

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Viral load fluctuates during the natural course of asymptomatic HIV-1 infection. It is often assumed that these fluctuations are random around a set point or underlying growth trend. Using longitudinal data, we tested whether fluctuations in viral load can be better explained by changes in CD4+ T-cell count than by a set point or trend of exponential growth. The correspondence between viral load and CD4+ T-cell count could be described by a simple mathematical relation. Using a bootstrapping approach, the hypothesis that viral load fluctuations are random around a set point was rejected with p < .00005. The hypothesis that viral load fluctuations are random around a trend of exponential growth was rejected with p < .005. Viral load data was explained better by changes in CD4+ T-cell counts than by a set point or by a trend of exponential growth. The implications of this finding for improved prognostication discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)375-379
Number of pages5
JournalJournal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
Volume23
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 15 2000
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • CD4 cell count
  • Longitudinal HIV
  • Predictive value of tests
  • Prognosis
  • Viral load

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Pharmacology (medical)

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