Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Angeline G. Pendergrass; Gerald A. Meehl; Roger Pulwarty; Mike Hobbins; Andrew Hoell; Amir AghaKouchak; Céline J.W. Bonfils; Ailie J.E. Gallant; Martin Hoerling; David Hoffmann; Laurna Kaatz; Flavio Lehner; Dagmar Llewellyn; Philip Mote; Richard B. Neale; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Amanda Sheffield; Kerstin Stahl; Mark Svoboda; Matthew C. Wheeler; Andrew W. Wood; Connie A. Woodhouse

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Angeline G. Pendergrass, Gerald A. Meehl, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Hobbins, Andrew Hoell, Amir AghaKouchak, Céline J.W. Bonfils, Ailie J.E. Gallant, Martin Hoerling, David Hoffmann, Laurna Kaatz, Flavio Lehner, Dagmar Llewellyn, Philip Mote, Richard B. Neale, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Amanda Sheffield, Kerstin Stahl, Mark Svoboda, Matthew C. WheelerAndrew W. Wood, Connie A. Woodhouse

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

177 Scopus citations

Abstract

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	191-199
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	10
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
State	Published - Mar 1 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

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10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

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Pendergrass, A. G., Meehl, G. A., Pulwarty, R., Hobbins, M., Hoell, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bonfils, C. J. W., Gallant, A. J. E., Hoerling, M., Hoffmann, D., Kaatz, L., Lehner, F., Llewellyn, D., Mote, P., Neale, R. B., Overpeck, J. T., Sheffield, A., Stahl, K., Svoboda, M., ... Woodhouse, C. A. (2020). Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Nature Climate Change, 10(3), 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

Pendergrass, AG, Meehl, GA, Pulwarty, R, Hobbins, M, Hoell, A, AghaKouchak, A, Bonfils, CJW, Gallant, AJE, Hoerling, M, Hoffmann, D, Kaatz, L, Lehner, F, Llewellyn, D, Mote, P, Neale, RB, Overpeck, JT, Sheffield, A, Stahl, K, Svoboda, M, Wheeler, MC, Wood, AW & Woodhouse, CA 2020, 'Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction', Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

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title = "Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction",

abstract = "Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.",

author = "Pendergrass, {Angeline G.} and Meehl, {Gerald A.} and Roger Pulwarty and Mike Hobbins and Andrew Hoell and Amir AghaKouchak and Bonfils, {C{\'e}line J.W.} and Gallant, {Ailie J.E.} and Martin Hoerling and David Hoffmann and Laurna Kaatz and Flavio Lehner and Dagmar Llewellyn and Philip Mote and Neale, {Richard B.} and Overpeck, {Jonathan T.} and Amanda Sheffield and Kerstin Stahl and Mark Svoboda and Wheeler, {Matthew C.} and Wood, {Andrew W.} and Woodhouse, {Connie A.}",

note = "Funding Information: The perspectives in this manuscript emerged from an Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) workshop in September 2018; we thank all participants (https://www.agci. org/event/18s4). This material is based on work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement no. 1947282. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy{\textquoteright}s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via NSF IA 1844590. M.H. was supported by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Technology Transfer Initiative (JTTI) award and a US Agency for International Development (USAID)–Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) award (NA17OAR4320101). C.J.W.B. was supported by an Early-Mid Career LLNL Laboratory Directed Research and Development award (tracking code 17-ERD-115) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. A.J.E.G is supported by Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE150101297. M.C.W. was partially supported by the Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP), funded by Meat and Livestock Australia, the Queensland Government and the University of Southern Queensland. F.L. is also supported by NSF AGS-0856145 Amendment 87 and by the Bureau of Reclamation under Cooperative Agreement R16AC00039. The US Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and NOAA. Map (Fig. 1i) courtesy of NDMC. Opinions expressed by D.L. represent professional opinions of the co-author, not official positions of the government. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.",

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AU - Pendergrass, Angeline G.

AU - Meehl, Gerald A.

AU - Pulwarty, Roger

AU - Hobbins, Mike

AU - Hoell, Andrew

AU - AghaKouchak, Amir

AU - Bonfils, Céline J.W.

AU - Gallant, Ailie J.E.

AU - Hoerling, Martin

AU - Hoffmann, David

AU - Kaatz, Laurna

AU - Lehner, Flavio

AU - Llewellyn, Dagmar

AU - Mote, Philip

AU - Neale, Richard B.

AU - Overpeck, Jonathan T.

AU - Sheffield, Amanda

AU - Stahl, Kerstin

AU - Svoboda, Mark

AU - Wheeler, Matthew C.

AU - Wood, Andrew W.

AU - Woodhouse, Connie A.

N1 - Funding Information: The perspectives in this manuscript emerged from an Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) workshop in September 2018; we thank all participants (https://www.agci. org/event/18s4). This material is based on work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement no. 1947282. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via NSF IA 1844590. M.H. was supported by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Technology Transfer Initiative (JTTI) award and a US Agency for International Development (USAID)–Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) award (NA17OAR4320101). C.J.W.B. was supported by an Early-Mid Career LLNL Laboratory Directed Research and Development award (tracking code 17-ERD-115) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. A.J.E.G is supported by Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE150101297. M.C.W. was partially supported by the Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP), funded by Meat and Livestock Australia, the Queensland Government and the University of Southern Queensland. F.L. is also supported by NSF AGS-0856145 Amendment 87 and by the Bureau of Reclamation under Cooperative Agreement R16AC00039. The US Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and NOAA. Map (Fig. 1i) courtesy of NDMC. Opinions expressed by D.L. represent professional opinions of the co-author, not official positions of the government. Publisher Copyright: © 2020, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.

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N2 - Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

AB - Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

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Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

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