Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Angeline G. Pendergrass; Gerald A. Meehl; Roger Pulwarty; Mike Hobbins; Andrew Hoell; Amir AghaKouchak; Céline J.W. Bonfils; Ailie J.E. Gallant; Martin Hoerling; David Hoffmann; Laurna Kaatz; Flavio Lehner; Dagmar Llewellyn; Philip Mote; Richard B. Neale; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Amanda Sheffield; Kerstin Stahl; Mark Svoboda; Matthew C. Wheeler; Andrew W. Wood; Connie A. Woodhouse

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Angeline G. Pendergrass, Gerald A. Meehl, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Hobbins, Andrew Hoell, Amir AghaKouchak, Céline J.W. Bonfils, Ailie J.E. Gallant, Martin Hoerling, David Hoffmann, Laurna Kaatz, Flavio Lehner, Dagmar Llewellyn, Philip Mote, Richard B. Neale, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Amanda Sheffield, Kerstin Stahl, Mark Svoboda, Matthew C. WheelerAndrew W. Wood, Connie A. Woodhouse

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

272 Scopus citations

Abstract

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	191-199
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	10
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
State	Published - Mar 1 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

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Pendergrass, A. G., Meehl, G. A., Pulwarty, R., Hobbins, M., Hoell, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bonfils, C. J. W., Gallant, A. J. E., Hoerling, M., Hoffmann, D., Kaatz, L., Lehner, F., Llewellyn, D., Mote, P., Neale, R. B., Overpeck, J. T., Sheffield, A., Stahl, K., Svoboda, M., ... Woodhouse, C. A. (2020). Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Nature Climate Change, 10(3), 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

Pendergrass, AG, Meehl, GA, Pulwarty, R, Hobbins, M, Hoell, A, AghaKouchak, A, Bonfils, CJW, Gallant, AJE, Hoerling, M, Hoffmann, D, Kaatz, L, Lehner, F, Llewellyn, D, Mote, P, Neale, RB, Overpeck, JT, Sheffield, A, Stahl, K, Svoboda, M, Wheeler, MC, Wood, AW & Woodhouse, CA 2020, 'Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction', Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

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abstract = "Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.",

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AU - Pulwarty, Roger

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AU - Hoell, Andrew

AU - AghaKouchak, Amir

AU - Bonfils, Céline J.W.

AU - Gallant, Ailie J.E.

AU - Hoerling, Martin

AU - Hoffmann, David

AU - Kaatz, Laurna

AU - Lehner, Flavio

AU - Llewellyn, Dagmar

AU - Mote, Philip

AU - Neale, Richard B.

AU - Overpeck, Jonathan T.

AU - Sheffield, Amanda

AU - Stahl, Kerstin

AU - Svoboda, Mark

AU - Wheeler, Matthew C.

AU - Wood, Andrew W.

AU - Woodhouse, Connie A.

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AB - Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

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Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

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