TY - GEN
T1 - Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids
AU - Chertkov, Michael
AU - Stepanov, Mikhail
AU - Pan, Feng
AU - Baldick, Ross
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - In this manuscript we continue the thread of [M. Chertkov, F. Pan, M. Stepanov, Predicting Failures in Power Grids: The Case of Static Overloads, IEEE Smart Grid 2011] and suggest a new algorithm discovering most probable extreme stochastic events in static power grids associated with intermittent generation of wind turbines. The algorithm becomes EXACT and EFFICIENT (polynomial) in the case of the proportional (or other low parametric) control of standard generation, and log-concave probability distribution of the renewable generation, assumed known from the wind forecast. We illustrate the algorithm's ability to discover problematic extreme events on the example of the IEEE RTS-96 model of transmission with additions of 10%;20% and 30% of renewable generation. We observe that the probability of failure may grow but it may also decrease with increase in renewable penetration, if the latter is sufficiently diversified and distributed.
AB - In this manuscript we continue the thread of [M. Chertkov, F. Pan, M. Stepanov, Predicting Failures in Power Grids: The Case of Static Overloads, IEEE Smart Grid 2011] and suggest a new algorithm discovering most probable extreme stochastic events in static power grids associated with intermittent generation of wind turbines. The algorithm becomes EXACT and EFFICIENT (polynomial) in the case of the proportional (or other low parametric) control of standard generation, and log-concave probability distribution of the renewable generation, assumed known from the wind forecast. We illustrate the algorithm's ability to discover problematic extreme events on the example of the IEEE RTS-96 model of transmission with additions of 10%;20% and 30% of renewable generation. We observe that the probability of failure may grow but it may also decrease with increase in renewable penetration, if the latter is sufficiently diversified and distributed.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84860673265&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84860673265&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/CDC.2011.6160669
DO - 10.1109/CDC.2011.6160669
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84860673265
SN - 9781612848006
T3 - Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
SP - 2174
EP - 2180
BT - 2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011
Y2 - 12 December 2011 through 15 December 2011
ER -